Security News > 2020 > March > Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy
"A Dissenting View on Covid-19 Response Considering that the great majority of Covid-19 infections don't require special medical treatment, and that we have a good picture of the small percentage of the population that is most vulnerable, the optimal strategy is to a. provide strong protections for the people known to be most likely to get acutely ill".
"Bell curves are the dominant trait of outbreaks. A virus doesn't grow linearly or exponentially forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines. Whether via environmental factors or our own efforts, viruses accelerate and quickly decline. This fact of nature is represented in Farr's law. CDC's recommendation of"bend the curve" or "flatten the curve" reflects this natural reality A low probability of catching COVID-19 The World Health Organization according to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1-5% chance of catching it as well.
According to WHO's COVID-19 lead Maria Van Kerkhove, true community based spreading is very rare.
Van Kerkhove said "Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet," she said The media was put into a frenzy when the above authors released their study on COVID-19's ability to survive in the air.
As one doctor, who wants to remain anonymous, told me, "Corona doesn't have wings" Due to COVID-19's sensitivity to UV light and heat, it is very likely that it will "burn off" as humidity increases and temperatures rise Children and Teens aren't at risk Only 2% of the patients in a review of nearly 45,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases in China were children, and there were no reported deaths in children under 10, according to a study published in JAMA last month.
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https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/03/friday_squid_bl_721.html