Security News > 2023 > January > US think tank says China would probably lose if it tries to invade Taiwan

Three years from now, hypothetically, China launches an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

There's no overland route to deliver supplies to Taiwan's military - whatever it has when China invades is what it'll have until friendly forces can resupply it over the Pacific.

Taiwan is home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC - the largest producer of semiconductor chips in the world, and supplier to some of the largest tech companies on the planet.

One Chinese economist argued that China should invade Taiwan and seize control of TSMC if the US imposed sanctions on it akin to those placed on Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.

A bill is working its way through the US Congress that would allocate billions of dollars to Taiwan for military aid, as well as re-classifying Taiwan as a "Major non-NATO ally." That would give the US permission to enter into stronger military agreements and sell the country arms, though it's unclear if President Biden would support the measure.

"If China believes that the United States would be unwilling to bear the high costs of defending Taiwan, then China might risk an invasion To be deterred, China must doubt their ability to prevail through force of arms," the report concludes - "But it will require planning, some resources, and political will." .

News URL

https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2023/01/12/china_taiwan_wargame_scenarios/