Security News > 2021 > May > How prepared is the intelligence community to tackle possible threats?

In this complicated and fast-evolving setting, how prepared is the intelligence community to identify, assess, and mitigate possible threats before they become realities?

To predict specific future violence, a protective intelligence investigation must determine: "Whether an individual has the motive and means to develop or act on an opportunity to attack a protected person. A primary task of the investigator is to gather information, some of which may later be used as evidence, that can be used to determine whether the individual poses a threat to a protected person." - U.S. Department of Justice.

In gathering such information, history has repeatedly shown that creating a demographic assessment of the potential attacker would, in most situations, prove to be reductionist.

To attack a prominent figure requires one or more of the following steps: research, logistical planning, obtaining weapon(s), studying the security situation, an attack plan, and an escape plan.

All across the world, especially in the west, security intelligence services, law enforcement, and counter-terrorism units have greatly expanded their use of technology to be able to "Follow the breadcrumbs" and predict specific future attacks.

In some cases, potential attackers interact with community organizations, social services organizations, healthcare facilities, mental care providers, and even the criminal justice system.

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